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Wednesday, 27th March 2024

Odds shorten to 3/1 on Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin entering into coalition

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BoyleSports are offering 3/1 odds on a coalition between Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil as the most likely outcome of the next general election. 

If the two parties do form a coalition government, it would condemn Simon Harris to the shortest reign of any Taoiseach in the history of the state. However, the chances of the current coalition surviving are rated just as likely at 3/1, while odds of 5/1 are being offered on Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael going into opposition to a Sinn Féin-led rainbow coalition. 

Tánaiste Micheál Martin has previously warned of a “huge incompatibility” with Sinn Féin policies, but has also refused to rule out a coalition with the party who are hot 1/4 favourites to win the most seats. 

A new gamble this week from even money down to 4/6 is backing the general election to take place early next year after Taoiseach-elect Simon Harris appeared to rule out a snap poll by insisting the current coalition runs its full term. 

BoyleSports spokesperson Lawrence Lyons, said: “Stopping a Sinn Féin surge in the polls is going to be top of the to-do list for Simon Harris, but punters are starting to suspect Micheál Martin will compromise with Sinn Féin if they justify their odds as election favourites.” 

 Odds being offered for the various possible outcomes are: 

Government After Next General Election

3/1        Sinn Féin/Fianna Fáil

3/1        Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael/Green

5/1        SF/Lab/Soc Dems/Green/Inds

6/1        SF/Lab/Soc Dems/PBP/Green/Inds

7/1        FF/FG/Green/Inds

7/1        SF/FF/Inds

8/1        SF/Lab/Soc Dems/PBP/Inds

10/1     SF/FF/Lab

16/1     SF/FG

16/1     SF Majority

Year of next Irish general election

4/6        2025

11/10  2024

Next General Election – Most Seats

1/4        Sinn Féin

9/2        Fine Gael

9/2        Fianna Fáil

Taoiseach after next election

8/13     Mary Lou McDonald

4/1        Micheál Martin

4/1        Simon Harris

 

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